Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to...Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to analyze the spatio-temporal land use changes in a hot-spot in Northeast China(NEC). In total,13 driving factors were selected to statistically analyze the spatial relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors and individual land use types. These relationships were then used to simulate land use dynamic changes during 1980–2010 at a 1 km spatial resolution,and to capture the overall land use change patterns. The obtained results indicate that increases in cropland area in NEC were mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain during 1980–2000,with a small reduction between 2000 and 2010. An opposite pattern was identified for changes in forest areas. Forest decreases were mainly distributed in the Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains between 1980 and 2000,with a slight increase during 2000–2010. The urban areas have expanded to occupy surrounding croplands and grasslands,particularly after the year 2000. More attention is needed on the newly gained croplands,which have largely replaced wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain over the last decade. Land use change patterns identified here should be considered in future policy making so as to strengthen local eco-environmental security.展开更多
Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use,but efforts explor...Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use,but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking.Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China(NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security(ESS),food security(FSS) and comprehensive development(CDS).The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005.Overall,the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%.Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain,forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains,while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands.Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan,the ecological service value(ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050.The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios.Thus,CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection,especially for the wetlands,which should be given higher priority for future development.The issue of coordination is also critical in future development.The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.展开更多
Globally,urban land expands at a faster rate than the corresponding urban population,which comes at a cost of agricultural and natural land.Wealth has been identified as an underlying driver of this trend,but it is un...Globally,urban land expands at a faster rate than the corresponding urban population,which comes at a cost of agricultural and natural land.Wealth has been identified as an underlying driver of this trend,but it is unclear whether more prosperous cities inevitably have a greater urban land consumption.Here,we map urban pros-perity indicators to their relevant Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)for 64 major world cities and relate these to the corresponding urban land consumption(defined here as built-up land per capita).Results indicate a moderately-weak but significant correlation between overall prosperity and urban land consumption(Spear-man’s correlation,𝜌ρ=0.47,p<0.001),suggesting a trade-offbetween both.In addition,we find a regional clustering,with for example cities with relatively low prosperity and low urban land consumption in Africa,and cities with high prosperity and low-to-medium urban land consumption in Europe.The moderately-weak correlation in combination with these regional differences suggests that the observed trade-offis avertable and that other drivers moderate this relation.Consequently,cities can increase their prosperity without additional environmental consequences entailing land take and the conversion of natural and agricultural land.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China No.41201089No.41271112+3 种基金The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesNo.CCNU15A05058National Nonprofit Institute Research Grant of CAASNo.IARRP-2015-28
文摘Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to analyze the spatio-temporal land use changes in a hot-spot in Northeast China(NEC). In total,13 driving factors were selected to statistically analyze the spatial relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors and individual land use types. These relationships were then used to simulate land use dynamic changes during 1980–2010 at a 1 km spatial resolution,and to capture the overall land use change patterns. The obtained results indicate that increases in cropland area in NEC were mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain during 1980–2000,with a small reduction between 2000 and 2010. An opposite pattern was identified for changes in forest areas. Forest decreases were mainly distributed in the Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains between 1980 and 2000,with a slight increase during 2000–2010. The urban areas have expanded to occupy surrounding croplands and grasslands,particularly after the year 2000. More attention is needed on the newly gained croplands,which have largely replaced wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain over the last decade. Land use change patterns identified here should be considered in future policy making so as to strengthen local eco-environmental security.
基金Agricultural Outstanding Talents Research Foundation of Ministry of Agriculture(MOA)Key Laboratory of Agri–Informatics Foundation of MOA No.2015001+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province No.2016CFB558The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,No.CCNU15A05058
文摘Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use,but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking.Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China(NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security(ESS),food security(FSS) and comprehensive development(CDS).The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005.Overall,the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%.Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain,forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains,while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands.Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan,the ecological service value(ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050.The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios.Thus,CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection,especially for the wetlands,which should be given higher priority for future development.The issue of coordination is also critical in future development.The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.
基金This work was supported by The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research NWO in the form of a VIDI grant(Grant No.VI.Vidi.198.008).
文摘Globally,urban land expands at a faster rate than the corresponding urban population,which comes at a cost of agricultural and natural land.Wealth has been identified as an underlying driver of this trend,but it is unclear whether more prosperous cities inevitably have a greater urban land consumption.Here,we map urban pros-perity indicators to their relevant Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)for 64 major world cities and relate these to the corresponding urban land consumption(defined here as built-up land per capita).Results indicate a moderately-weak but significant correlation between overall prosperity and urban land consumption(Spear-man’s correlation,𝜌ρ=0.47,p<0.001),suggesting a trade-offbetween both.In addition,we find a regional clustering,with for example cities with relatively low prosperity and low urban land consumption in Africa,and cities with high prosperity and low-to-medium urban land consumption in Europe.The moderately-weak correlation in combination with these regional differences suggests that the observed trade-offis avertable and that other drivers moderate this relation.Consequently,cities can increase their prosperity without additional environmental consequences entailing land take and the conversion of natural and agricultural land.
