Introduction:Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a primary concern for sustaining the“Dynamic COVID-zero”strategy in China.Risk estimation is essential for cities...Introduction:Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a primary concern for sustaining the“Dynamic COVID-zero”strategy in China.Risk estimation is essential for cities to conduct before relaxing border control measures.Methods:Informed by the daily number of passengers traveling between 367 prefectures(cities)in China,this study used a stochastic metapopulation model parameterized with COVID-19 epidemic characteristics to estimate the importation and exportation risks.Results:Under the transmission scenario(R0=5.49),this study estimated the cumulative case incidence of Changchun City,Jilin Province as 3,233(95%confidence interval:1,480,4,986)before a lockdown on March 14,2022,which is close to the 3,168 cases reported in real life by March 16,2022.In a total of 367 prefectures(cities),127(35%)had high exportation risks according to the simulation and could transmit the disease to 50%of all other regions within a period from 17 to 94 days.The average time until a new infection arrives in a location in 1 of the 367 prefectures(cities)ranged from 26 to 101 days.Conclusions:Estimating COVID-19 importation and exportation risks is necessary for preparedness,prevention,and control measures of COVID-19—especially when new variants emerge.展开更多
基金Supported by AIR@InnoHK programme from The Innovation and Technology Commission of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,National Natural Science Foundation of China(72104208)JSPS KAKENHI(JP21H04595)National Nature Science Foundation of China(72025405,91846301,72088101,and 71790615).
文摘Introduction:Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a primary concern for sustaining the“Dynamic COVID-zero”strategy in China.Risk estimation is essential for cities to conduct before relaxing border control measures.Methods:Informed by the daily number of passengers traveling between 367 prefectures(cities)in China,this study used a stochastic metapopulation model parameterized with COVID-19 epidemic characteristics to estimate the importation and exportation risks.Results:Under the transmission scenario(R0=5.49),this study estimated the cumulative case incidence of Changchun City,Jilin Province as 3,233(95%confidence interval:1,480,4,986)before a lockdown on March 14,2022,which is close to the 3,168 cases reported in real life by March 16,2022.In a total of 367 prefectures(cities),127(35%)had high exportation risks according to the simulation and could transmit the disease to 50%of all other regions within a period from 17 to 94 days.The average time until a new infection arrives in a location in 1 of the 367 prefectures(cities)ranged from 26 to 101 days.Conclusions:Estimating COVID-19 importation and exportation risks is necessary for preparedness,prevention,and control measures of COVID-19—especially when new variants emerge.
