摘要
从宫颈癌、大肠癌等病种的自然史抽象出一个具有时变伴随变量的潜隐期二阶段模型。潜隐期以正常状态为起点,疾病为终点;其前阶段可逆,后阶段不可逆;状态间转移速率因病人状况而异。用Markov过程描述并求解此模型,进而给出参数估计和假设检验方法。利用此模型基于江西省靖安县12年6轮宫颈癌筛查资料进行了自然史研究,并讨论了应用前景。
A two-stage model with time-dependent covariates for the latent period is abstracted from th eknow-ledge on cancer of cervix and large intestine etc. The latent period is defined with the normal stateas the origin and the disease as the end; the former stage of it is assumed reversible and the latterstage irreversible; the rates of transitions among states depend on the patient's situation. The methodfor parameter estimation and hypothesis testing are given based on the solution of a Markov processwhich describes the above framework quantitatively. All of these has been applied to a study onnatural history of cervical cancer using the 12-year/6-run screening data carried out in Jingan county,Jiangxi province, China, and the prospects of further application of the result is discussed.
出处
《北京医科大学学报》
CSCD
1993年第1期11-14,共4页
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences)
基金
国家七五攻关课题
关键词
肿瘤
潜隐期
二阶段模型
Latent period of cancer
Two-stage model
Natural history
