摘要
本文利用独自收集到的有关北京市下岗职工的样本数据，分析了影响下岗职工失业持续时间的原因．探讨了影响下岗职工再就业前后收入变化的原因。通过分析得出以下主要结论：第一，下岗政策虽然在一定程度上促进了劳动力市场的形成．但随着下岗职工失业持续时间的延长，下岗政策已成为阻碍劳动力市场化的因素，同时也妨碍了市场经济体制下社会失业保障体制的建立和完善。第二．为了使更多的有在传统体制下工作经历的下岗职工，尤其是大量从事过企业管理工作的下岗职工尽快地实现再就业，不仅需要对他们进行各种技能的培训，而且更需要对他们进行如何适应新的经济环境的再教育。第三。“下岗”不仅是中国经济体制转型过程中的一个特殊时期的政策，实际上也是结构性失业在中国特有经济体制中表现出来的一种特有的现象。对于这种由于产业结构变化带来的失业问题，政府有必要制定更多的积极性的失业政策。
Using the data gathered by myself about the laid-off workers in Beijing region,this paper firstly analyses the causes of the laid-off workers continuing to be out of work by Hazardmodel. Secondly, this paper applies Tobit model to explore the causes of the change of the laid-offworkers income before they are re-employed and after that. From above analysis, we draw somemajor conclusions: First, although the policy of lay-off has accelerated the establishing of labormarket to some extent, with the prolonged time to keep the laid-off workers to be out of work,the policy has turn out to be obstacle for the labor-marketing. Meanwhile, it will obstruct to setup and to perfect the social system of unemployment benefit under market economic system.Second, it is necessary to be reeducated to adapt to new economic environment as well as tobe trained more skill for those laid-off workers who have worked experiences under traditional sys-tem, especially for those who had worked for enterprise as managers.Third, the'lay-off'is not only a policy in special phase during the process of china economicsystem reform, but also a special phenomenon which is the structural unemployment revealed fromChinese economic system. And with respect to this unemployment problem resulted from thechange of industry structure, the government must to constitute more active unemployment poli-cy.
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
2004年第3期657-678,共22页
China Economic Quarterly
