摘要
中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。
The scientific principle directing earthquake prediction in China can be expressed in terms of a model by which respective stages of the anomaly groups are traced for making prediction as guided by the view point of integrity. The importance of macroscopic phenomenological method is fully emphasized in regard to methodology. It is suggested that seismic precursors may be searched by making statistic recognition using seismological, geophysical, crustal defor-mational and geochemical data so as to predict the 3 key elements of a forthcoming event and to solve such sophisticated problems as the seismogenic process, etc. It is also pointed out in the paper that the difficulties in earthquake prediction lie in the understanding of the seismogenesis, the mechanic process of the development of the foci, the formation mechanism of the precursors as well as the determination of the variables dominating the earthquake-impending stage. The tidal force, atmospheric pressure and precipitation, etc in the earthquake-impending stage are regarded as noise factors in common situations, yet such factors may become the modulating forces to trigger earthquakes. All those multiply the complexity of the precursors, and should thus be dealt with extreme caution when filtering out the noises.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第2期186-192,共7页
Journal of Seismological Research
关键词
地震
预报
思路
方法论
Guide lines of earthquake prediction
Anomaly groups
Methodology
Macroscopic phenomenological method
Intersection in the pattern of 'eggs and hens'
