摘要
本文简要介绍了应用门限自回归方法处理浑沌时间序列,建立了浑沌时间序列自回归预报模型,并用其进行外推预报的基本方法及步骤。作者运用该方法建立了云南及滇西、滇东和滇西南等三个片区的半年最大震级序列的震级预报模型。由此预测了1991年上半年模型相应地区可能发生的最大地震震级。
Chaotic time series are proeessed by asing the threshold autofegressive method to establish an autoregressive model predicting snch time series. The basic method and procedures are also introduce d concerning such an extrapolated prediction. Using this method, the author constructs respective models to predict the maximum magnitude series of carthquakes which are likely to occur within 6 months in the whole Yunan province as well as in its sub-regions of western, castern and southwestern Yunnan. Based on such a study, the maximum magnitude of earthquakes likely to occur in the first 6 mouths in Yunnan's sub-regious covered by respective models are predicted.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第2期154-161,共8页
Journal of Seismological Research
基金
云南省青年地震科学基金
关键词
门限自回归
地震
预报
浑沌
Threshold autoregcessive analysis
Chaotic time series
Extrapotated prediction
Mean square errors
