摘要
本研究通过对大量泥石流堆积扇平面形态的统计分析,总结出三种不同类型的平面概化模式,由此推导了它们的通用求积公式。并通过对泥石流沟流域背景因素的比较分析,选择了流域面积、流域相对高差、主沟长度和主沟平均坡度作为预测泥石流危险范围的定量指标。采用多元和逐步回归分析的数学方法,得出了泥石流最大堆积长度、最大堆积宽度和最大堆积幅角的计算公式,建立了半理论半经验性的泥石流危险范围的预测模型。通过模型的检验及其应用实践,证明本研究提出的泥石流危险范围的流域背景预测法适用于我国暴雨泥石流危险范围的预测预报。
Through a great deal of statistical analysis on the planar shapes of debris flow fans,this researchhas induced three types of the mode of the fans,and deduced their area calculation formula.By thecomparative analysis on the drainage background factors of debris flow ravines,the drainage area,drainage relative relief,main channel length and mean gradient of main channel are chosen as thequantitative indexes for the forecast on the risk range of debris flow.Applying the multivariate regres-sion analysis,the study has obtained the equations to calculate the maximum accumulative length,width and range angle of debris flow fan,and established the semi-theoretical and semi-empirical math-ematical model to forecast the risk range of debris flow.The tests and applications of the model showthat the drainage background forecast on the risk range of debris flow is completely suitable for therainstorm—induced debris flows.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
1992年第3期56-67,共12页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(49000011)
云南省科委应用基础研究基金资助项目(90D063)。
关键词
泥石流
范围
流域背景
预测模型
Debris flow
Risk range
Drainage background
Forecast model
