摘要
长江中下游和华北地区的降雨指数R与峰值质子(>10mev)流量≥100pfu质子耀斑呈正相关关系。约有81.3%和76.1%的大质子耀斑(峰值质子流量≥100pfu)事件,在其发生后的第一个月内,长江中下游和华北地区的雨量将明显地增加,如果雨量过大,还容易造成洪水灾害。对于1991年初夏发生的二次特大洪水过程,如果天气预报时,考虑到日面连续爆发大质子耀斑这一天文因素,有可能提前24～30天预报这两次大水,从而做到及早防范。大质子耀斑后,西太平洋副高的西伸北移和极涡南移造成的冷空气南下,是长江中下游和华北地区雨量明显增加的重要原因之一,在夏季汛期,很可能是洪水灾害的主要原因。
The solar proton flares having peak proton flux≥100pfu (SPF_(100)) positively correlate with the Rindex of rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river/north China. In a month just after the occurrence of SPF_(100),the probabilities of the significant increase ofmonthly rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river and north China reach to 81.3%and 76.1% respectively.In some cases,the increases of rainfall were so even causing severe floods. There were two processes of severe flood during early summer 1991.If we make weather fore-casting in consideration of solar proton flares,it is possible correctly predicting these two processes ofsevere flood with a lead of 24～30 days. One of the important causes for the significant increase of rainfall in middle-lower Yangtzeriver/north China is the west-horthward shift of subtropical high in west Pacific and the southward inversionshift of cold air from polar vortex just after the outburst of SPF_(100).it may be the main cause of severeflood during rain season.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
1992年第3期92-100,共9页
Journal of Natural Disasters
关键词
太阳
质子耀斑
降雨
指数
Sun
Proton flare
Index of rainfall
