最优前瞻性货币政策规则的设计与应用被引量：24

The Designing and Application of the Forward-looking Monetary Policy Rules

导出

摘要本文根据中国的实际数据 ,在估计混合型模型的基础上 ,以福利为基准 ,通过随机模拟 ,得到最优前瞻性区间和最优前瞻性货币政策规则。与其他规则相比 ,该前瞻性规则具有其优越性。另外 ,本文分析了前瞻性规则与经济预测的关系。 In this paper, we estimate a hybrid model based on the actual data of China, and then compute the optimal forecasting horizons and forward\|looking monetary policy rules by means of stochastic simulations. As compared to other monetary policy rules, the forward\|looking policy rule has its superiority. In addition, we analyze the relationship between the forward\|looking policy rule and economic forecasts, and provide some suggestions for the further improvements of currents monetary policydecision and implementation in China.

作者刘斌

机构地区中国人民银行研究局

出处《世界经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2004年第4期12-18,共7页 The Journal of World Economy

基金国家自然科学基金( 70 2 73 0 5 7)

关键词货币政策滞后效应前瞻性规则经济预测中国中央银行社会福利传导机制通货膨胀率估计混合型模型

分类号 F820 [经济管理—财政学]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献18

1刘斌.最优货币政策规则的选择及在我国的应用[J].经济研究,2003,38(9):3-13. 被引量：110
2Barro. R., and Gordon. D. "Rules, Discretion, and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy. " Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, pp. 101-121, 1983.
3Batini, N. and Haldane, A. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," in J. Taylor, ed.. Monetary Policy Rules.University of Chicago Press, pp. 157-192, 1999.
4Batini, N., and Pearlman, J. "Too Much Too Soon:Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules. "Unpublished working paper, Bank of England, July 2002.
5Batini, N. , and Nelson, E. "Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting. " Bank of England working paper, No. 119, 2000.
6Clarida, R. ; Gall. J. and Gertler, M. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory. " Quarterly Journal of Economics. 115. pp. 147- 180.2000.
7Gali, J. and Gertler, M. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Approach. " Journal of Monetary Economics, 44,pp. 195-222, 1999.
8Gall, J. ; Gertler, M. and L6pez-Salido, D. "European Inflation Dynamics. " European Economic Review, 45, pp. 1237-1270, 2001.
9Giannoni, M. and Woodford, M. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory. " NBER working paper, No. 9419,2002a.
10-. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules., Ⅱ. Applications. "NBER working paper, No. 9420, 2002b.

二级参考文献16

1Barro, R J , and D B Gordon. 1983, "Rules, Discretion, and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy", Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, p101-121.
2Calvo, G. 1983, "Staggered Prices in Utility Maximizing Framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, p383-398.
3Friedman, M. 1969. The Ovtimum Ouantity of Money and Other Essays, Chicago, Aldine Publishing Company.
4Gali, J, and M C, ertler. 1999, "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis", Journal of Monetary Economics, 44.
5Kydland, F E , and E C Prescott. 1977, "Rules rather than Discretion : the Inconsistency of Optimal Plan", Journal of Political Economy,85.
6Lucas, R. 1976, "Econometric Policy Evaluation: a Critique", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series, 1, p19-46.
7Lucas, R. 2000, "Inflation and Welfare", Econometrica, 68, p247-274.
8Rotemberg, J. 1982, "Monopolistic Price Adjuslanent and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, 44, p517-531.
9Rotembelg, J. and M Woodford. 1997, "An Optimization Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, p297-345.
10Soderlind, P. 1999, "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," European Economic Review, 43, p813-823.