摘要
本文根据对树木年轮的分析,探讨了湖南最200年气候变迁的趋势和特征,指出它处于我国历史时期的第四次冷期之中,包括较小尺度的冷期和暖期各3次,取得了200多年的气候资料,揭示了多种时间尺度的气候周期,讨论了气候周期和太阳活动、大气环流之间的关系,并对未来10年的气候进行了超长期预报,认为它将进一步趋向于干旱和温暖,在1991～1993年、1996～1998年和2000年有可能出现厄尔尼诺.本文亦是在我国东部亚热带山区进行年轮分析的尝试之一.
According to the dendro analysis, this paper makes a study of the trend and features of climatic variation of Hunan province in the last two hundred years, then shows that it is the fourth cold stage in Chinese history, including three cold periods and three warm periods on a less scale, and obtains the climatological data of the last two hundred years. Finally the paper discusses the relation between the climatic periods and the solar activity, general atmospheric circulation, and tells the extra long-range forecast of the future climate in more than 10 years. The author considers that the weather will be drier and warmer and that the El-Nino will be likely to appear between 1991 and 1993, 1996 and 1998, in 2000.
关键词
气候变迁
超长期预报
树木年轮
tree-ring
climatic variation
solar activity
general atmospheric circulation
El-Nino
extra long-range forecast
