摘要
利用近几年多普勒雷达体扫复合仰角资料以及气象台站自记和自动气象站雨量资料,在淮河流域雨季不同气候区进行降水估测。采用最优化、概率配对法分别得到不同区域的Z-I关系,并在2002年6～7月进行对比试验,对过程降水误差进行分析,找出最佳估测区域和最佳估测方法。另外利用合肥周围70 km范围内19个自动雨量站资料,用卡尔曼滤波校准方法、最优化方法、概率配对方法同时进行降水估测,提供了判别其方法优劣的可靠依据。
From Doppler radar volume scan data, recording pluviometer data and automatic weather station data, using optimization technique and probability-fitting technique, we estimated quantitative precipitation in different climatic regions over the Huaihe valley. By comparing the two techniques and analyzing errors, we knew that the relative error resulting from probability-fitting technique was small. Particularly, the estimator value was uniformly smaller than the observational value in probability-fitting technique. For optimization technique, the estimator ability for over 50 mm per day was not strong. By calculating mean relative errors on different range segments, the optimal estimator region was from 110～200 km. Besides, the error was mostly due to Z-I relationship抯 instability, precipitation echo抯 movement velocity and radar wave scan height抯 changing with different ranges. In addition, using rainfall data from nineteen automatic stations surrounding Hefei, we couducted comparative estimator experiment by Kalman filter adjustment technique, optimization technique and probability-fitting technique and got the conclusion that the Kalman filter adjustment technique is the best, followed by probability-fitting is better.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第2期192-197,共6页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
科技部社会公益类项目"基于CINRAD雷达和卫星的淮河流域致洪暴雨研究"
安徽省科委项目"安徽省暴雨形成机理和定点
定时
定量基础研究"资助
关键词
卡尔曼滤波校准法
最优化法
概率配对法
降水估测
Kalman filter adjustment technique
Optimization technique
Probability-fitting technique
estimating precipitation
