摘要
农业生产经营风险管理所涉及的风险因素很多,主要有:(1)单产变化;(2)价格变化;(3)新技术或新知识变化;(4)农业投入水平变化;(5)政府政策变化;(6)法律变化;(7)消费者偏好变化,等等。通过权衡风险和收益,采用适宜的管理策略来规避风险,提高收益,形成了一系列非确定性关系下的风险决策方法。联系河北省20世纪90年代以来农业生产的实际情况,探讨了各种主要的规避或减少农业生产风险的方法和策略,如利用偏相关系数最小的方法选择稳定的生产项目;采用多种经营以分散风险的组合策略;提高农业生产经营灵活性的诸多措施;利用二次规划以建立风险最小而又能保证一定收入水平的最优规划方法等。
There are many risk factors that are related to the agricultural production risk management. Essentially, most of the following changes have to be considered: (1) the unit production; (2) the prices; (3) the new techniques and the new knowledge; (4) the input level; (5) the government policy; (6) the laws; (7) the preference of consumers, etc. The risk aversion by means of suitable managing strategy through assessing risk with revenue can increase benefit and make out a serial of risk decision methods under uncertainty. The paper has studied those methods to reduce the agricultural production risk. The analysis applied the data of Hebei province from 1990 to 2000 to illustrate the average partial coefficient of correlation, portfolio of the multiindustry, increasing management flexibility, quadratic programming model, and to guarantee a certain level of revenue.
出处
《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
2003年第5期34-38,共5页
Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)
关键词
偏相关系数
生产经营灵活性
二次规划
partial coefficient of correlation
production management flexibility
quadratic programming
