摘要
本文指出,目前地震危险性分析工作中的不确定性有五个层次的来源。就性质而言,上述不确定性可分为客观不确定性和主观不确定性两类。文中提出了处理各层次不确定性的对策原则。研究发现,对实际危险性分析模型来说,客观不确定性往往伴同主观不确定性一起出现,因而在对客观不确定性作校正时应重视减小其中主观不确定性的影响;而在排除主观倾向性并尽可能减少主观失误之后,具相对真理性的不同专家方案的差异可视为客观不确定性,需视其统计特征作进一步校正。
This paper points out that there are five levels of uncertainties coming from practical work of current seismic hazard analysis, which may be qualitatively divided into two kinds, objective uncertainty and subjective uncertainty. In this paper, principles and countermeasures are suggested to treat different levels of uncertainties. For practical seismic hazard analysis models, objective uncertainties are often accompanied by subjective uncertainties. So attention should be paid to reduce the influence of subjective uncertainties while making correction to objective uncertainties. After excluding subjective tendency and reducing subjective errors as far as possible, the variance of different specialists' schemes which are of property of relative truth may be regarded as objective uncertainty. And further correction should be made according' to its statistical characteristics.
出处
《中国地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第4期12-15,共4页
Earthquake Research in China
基金
地震科学联合基金
