摘要
本文系统地研究了本世纪以来发生在中国大陆M_s≥6.0级地震的时空分布特征和大地震发生后一定时间尺度、空间范围内的减震作用,并计算出了大震发生后继发性强震的时空累积概率。结果表明,中国大陆7级以上大震发生后在一定时间、空间尺度范围内对后续强震的发生具有比较明显的缓解作用,这是由于大地震造成的破裂释放了震源及周围区域长期积累的大部分应变能,从而大大减弱了这个区域一定时间尺度内再次产生大破裂的可能性,使该区强震的继发累积概率表现出低值。以上结果可以作为一次大震发生后对相对安全区和危险区中期预测的主要依据。
In this paper,the temporal and spatial features of the strong earthquakes with magnitude Ms ≥ 6. 0 occurring in the mainland of China since the beginning of this century and their roles of brady-seism were studied. Furthermore, the accumulative probabilities of the occurrence of the successional earthquakes following strong events with time and field were figured out. The results show that the occurrence of the earthquakes with magnitude Ms ≥ 7. 0 have an obvious cushioning effect on the successional events both in certain temporal and spatial scale. The big crack due to the large earthquake released most of the total strain energy accumulated , which slow down the reoccurrence of the cracks greatly. The probabilities of the successional earthquakes is very low. The main conclusions can be used as a reference to the mid-prediction of the relatively safe area and highly risk area after a large earthquake.
出处
《中国地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第2期11-22,共12页
Earthquake Research in China
