摘要
依据1993年1月～2003年10月,近11年共130个月的零售额数据,利用ARIMA模型,对我国2004年社会消费品月度零售总额进行分析预测.结果证明我国2004年社会消费品月度零售额总体上将持续增长,但各月之间存在明显的季节性变化和差异.
Based on the monthly data of Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in China from 1.1993 to 10.2003, it established the model of ARIMA (p, d, q)(P, D, Q) +s and predicted the Monthly Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods of China in 2004. The Monthly Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods of China in 2004 will continue to increase as a whole, but there will exist obvious seasonal changes every month.
出处
《甘肃科学学报》
2004年第1期116-120,共5页
Journal of Gansu Sciences
