摘要
本文简要地阐述了研究未来的方法，并着重介绍了趋势外推法和特尔斐法，而后根据近十年照明科技成果及论文统计数字分析了照明工程科学的发展趋势，再用趋势外推法对我国照明的未来进行了展望，而后提出了若干措施与建议。
This paper reviews some methods of studying the future, particularly the trend extending method and the Delphi-Method. The development trend in lighting engineering and science is analyzed on the basis of a statistics involving recent devade's Lighting in the future is made through trend extending method. Some suggestions and measures are proposed in conclusion.
出处
《照明工程学报》
1992年第1期13-28,共16页
China Illuminating Engineering Journal
关键词
照明工程
未来学
特尔斐法
Illuminating Engineering, Futuristics (prognostics), Trend Extending method, Delphi Method.
