摘要
目前我国主要江河流域大都只能防御常遇洪水,近10a内这种状况不会有大的改观。因此,我国近期防洪的重点是尽量减少主要江河流域中下游精华地区在出现超标准洪水时的损失。实现这一目标的有效途径,是在洪水风险分析的基础上,制定并实施防御超标准洪水的预案。而减少伤亡最有效的方法是控制山洪高风险区的开发和建立预警报系统。
Flood risk analysis is an effective decision aidtool. The annual expected flood losses of china is about 20 billion yuan, exceeding 1％ of GNP. Along with economic developing and population and property concentration in the floodplain, flood losses will further increase in the future. At present, most of the main rivers can only contiol 20 year or so flood, this situation will exist in a rather long period. Thus, our recent strategy should focus on reducing flood losses of the important and developed areas, in case of happening hazardous flood. One of the effective way to realize this aim is to develop and implement flood mitigation pre-alternatives based on flood risk analysis, controlling development of high flash flood risk zone and forecast and warning systems would prevent more deaths than structural measures.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
1992年第3期79-83,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
关键词
洪水
风险分析
防洪
Risk analysis, Flood control strategy, Pre-alternative
