摘要
在反思1994年以来人民币汇率制度及其运行机制的基础上,本文比较研究了固定盯住汇率、浮动汇率、目标区汇率以及有管理的浮动汇率制度,指出没有一种汇率制度是完美的,不存在任何不足和风险,也没有任何一种汇率制度适合于所有国家和所有时期。一种汇率制度是否适合于一个国家,主要应取决于该国特定的经济和金融环境。1994年以来,尽管中国实行固定盯住汇率制度取得了一定的成功,但应看到,面对新的国内和国外经济环境,继续维持固定盯住汇率安排,其成本将是很高的。目前中国尚不满足成功的浮动汇率制度运行所需要的条件,而目标区汇率制度在实施过程中也存在两个严重的内在不足,因此,相比之下,有管理的浮动汇率制度比较适合于中国。
Based on rethinking the operation of RMB exchange rate system reform since 1994 and examining the advantages and disadvantages under the fixed peg, floating, target zones and managed floating exchange rate regimes, the paper states that none of exchange rate regime is perfect or without costs and risks, nor will it work perfectly on every occasion. The exchange rate regime is appropriate for a country or not depending on its specific economic and financial circumstances. The fixed peg exchange rate arrangement has achieved success in China since 1994, but facing new environments. China does not yet satisfy the requirements for a successful floating exchange rate regime. And there are at least two serious intrinsic deficiencies in the complementation of target zones in real world. Thus, a managed floating exchange rate regime is now appropriate for China. It is time for China to change to a managed floating exchange rate regime from the fixed peg. The Chinese authorities should take active measures to exit from fixed peg regime gradually and moreover, that should be backed by consistent and sustainable macroeconomic policies and relevant structural reforms.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第2期30-43,共14页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
汇率制度
固定的盯住汇率
有管理的浮动汇率
exchange rate regime, fixed peg exchange rate regime, managed floating exchange rate regime.
