摘要
利用IPCC数据分发中心提供的7个模式的模拟结果,分析了由于人类活动影响,温室气体(GG)增加以及温室气体和硫化物气溶胶(GS)共同增加时,长江中下游地区未来50～100年的气候变化情景。结果表明,长江中下游地区21世纪的未来温度变化与全球和全国一样,都将呈增加的趋势。GG作用下,2050年和2100年长江中下游地区的变暖幅度分别为2.2℃和4.5℃左右,比全国以及东部和西部地区的变暖幅度小;GS作用下2050年和2100年,其分别为1.2℃和3.9℃,总体上,长江中下游地区的变暖幅度低于全球与全国的变暖幅度。各个季节相比,春季和冬季的增温幅度最大,夏季最小,在两种情形下,长江中下游地区21世纪中期夏季温度将分别增加2.3和0.8℃,2100年将分别增加4.1和3.1℃。对降水变化的分析表明,GG作用下,长江中下游地区与全球、全国以及中国西部和东部地区相比,降水增加的幅度最大;GS作用下,降水增加趋势不明显;综合7个模式的模拟结果,GG作用下,春季和秋季降水增加最明显,夏季次之;GS作用下,长江中下游地区的年平均降水变化不明显,夏季降水增加。同时,本文还对长江中下游地区21世纪中期和末期的温度和降水变化的地理分布进行了分析,两种情形下,都是长江以北的增温幅度大于长江以南。GG作用下。
Using the simulation of seven GCM models provided by DDC of IPCC , the situation of climate change along the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in the future 50～100 years duo to the effects of human activities is analyzed. The results show that climate change in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River has a warming tendency which is similar to that in the whole world and China. Considering the effect of greenhouse gas increase (GG) only, the annual mean temperature in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River would be increased by (2.2℃) and 4.5℃ in 2050 and 2100 respectively which are generally smaller than those in the whole word and China; which are smaller than those in western and eastern China. On the other hand, under the effect of sulfate aerosols increase (GS) only, the annual mean temperature in that area would be increased by (1.2℃) and (3.9℃) in 2050 and 2100 respectively which are generally smaller than those in the whole world and China; with respect to seasons the increases of temperature in spring and winte are larger that in summer. For two cases mentioned above, the summer's temperature in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River would be increased by (2.3℃) and 0.8℃ in mid-term and by (4.1℃) and (3.1℃) in the end of the 21st century. Comparing with temperatur, the simulations of precipitation are not consistent among all the models . The comparisons of changes for different space-scales indicated that the precipitation increase is more obviously in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River than globe and China by the GG. The comparisons of the different seasons show that the precipitation might increase in the next 100 years over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in spring and autumn for GG, the annual mean precipitation increase might be not obvious for GS. The distributions of the mean temperature and precipitation in next 100 years were analyzed in this paper over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. The results indicated that the warming over the northern part is greater than that in southern part of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River for both GG and GS. For GG, the precipitation might increase in spring (range 5%～7.5%) and summer (10%) in the lower reaches of Yangtze River in (mid-21st) century, the precipitation in the end of 21st century might increase greater than that in (mid-21st) century in spring and summer, especially in the southern part of Yangtze River. For GS, the precipitation might increase in the southern part of Yangtze River and decrease in the northern.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第1期25-31,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家"十五"重点科技攻关项目(2001BA611B 01)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40231004)
中国气象局IPG项经费资助项目
关键词
气候变化
温室气体
硫化物气溶胶
长江中下游地区
GCM
climate change
greenhouse gases
sulfide aerosols
middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River
