摘要
门限自回归模型是一种新近创立的非线性时间序列摸型。本文将其引入水文地质学领域,并利用山西龙子祠泉流量以及泉域降水量序列资料,建立描述泉流量动态的门限自回归线模型。结果表明,所建模型能用于泉流量动态的长期预报工作,对龙子祠泉的合理开发利用具有一定的实用价值;门限自回归模型能较真实地刻划复杂的泉流量动态,可推广应用于类似的时间序列建模中。
The threshold autoregressive model is a kind of non-linear time series model recently established. In this paper, the model is applied to hydrogeologieal problems. A threshold autoregressive model simulating spring discharge regime is presented using observation data of Longzici spring discharge and precipitation. It is shown that the model can be used in long term forecasting of the spring discharge regime. Moreover, the model is practically applicable to the rational development and utilization of Longzici spring resources. The threshold autoregressive model can describe more realistically the complicated spring discharge regime. It can be applied to the modcl establishment of similar time series.
出处
《勘察科学技术》
1989年第5期39-42,共4页
Site Investigation Science and Technology
