摘要
本文运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,对百色市40年信息灰色度较大的疟疾发病数据进行建模,并作疟疾流行趋势近期预测。经微机运行。模型平均拟合精度达到90.5%,预测精度达到一级水平。本文预测至1992年我市疟疾发病率将降至十万分之一以下。
This article introduces the application of the Grey Model, GM (1, 1) tothe process of modelling data with quite a high degree of Grey information onmalaria patients in Baise. This application used data from the past. 40-yearperiod and made a prediction of malaria prevalence in Baise for the nearfuture. The microcomputer analysis showed that the average fitting accuracy is90.50% and the prediction accuracy reached the first-class level. The authorsof this article predict that malaria incidence in Baise will drop to below0.01%.
出处
《现代预防医学》
CAS
1992年第1期23-25,共3页
Modern Preventive Medicine
关键词
灰色系统
预测
疟疾
流行趋势
The Grey Systems GM (1, 1) model Prediction
