摘要
以河北省中南部面积为 93 53 9平方公里 (约占河北总面积的 51 5% )的区域作为研究区 ,应用地理信息系统技术和地统计学方法对 1980～ 1997年的来自 3 6个监测点的二代棉铃虫卵的密度数据进行了空间结构分析和空间分布模拟。结果表明卵在所研究的尺度上存在空间相关性 ,但各年空间相关的程度均较弱且随年份和地域的不同而不同。空间变异成分所占比例的变化范围为 3 54%～ 61 67% ,其相关程从 115 92km到 487 0 8km。时间序列分析表明 ,卵的发生数量始终处于波动状态 ,其中 1980～ 1991年维持在低水平的波动状态 ,其发生的平均密度为 3 3 0粒 百株 ,变化范围为 12 2～ 70 6粒 百株 ;而 1992～ 1997年在高水平波动 ,其平均密度为 1877粒 百株 ,变化范围为 2 64～ 40 2 3粒 百株。空间模拟结果表明 ,各年的卵在空间均呈现聚集分布的格局 ,但聚集程度依据其空间相关成分所占比例的不同而不同。从发生的地域特点看 ,从东北至西南 ,卵的发生程度逐渐趋重 ,其中西部的阜平县、曲阳县、行唐县、灵寿县、平山县等地以及南部的邯郸市、磁县、临漳县、魏县等地发生最重 ,而东北的遵化市、玉田县、丰润县、唐山市、丰南县等地最轻。卵的密度的各个等级不仅在地域上存在差异 ,而且随时间发生变化 ,从整体发生情?
In this study, Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and geo statistics (GS) methods were used to analyze the spatial structure and simulate the spatial distribution with the historical data of the 2nd generation eggs densiti es of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), which were collected from 36 monitor ing points in Hebei Province during 1980 to 1997. The study areas lie in central an d southern part of Hebei Province, and amounted to 93 539 km^2, about 51.5% of the whole provincial area. Results showed that the eggs were correlated spatially i n the study areas, but degrees of correlation were all lower and different from year to year and area to area. Proportion of spatial variation changed from 3.5 4 % to 61.67%; the distance range of spatial dependence varied from 115.92 to 487.08 km. The time series analysis showed that the quantity of H. armigera w as alwa ys in fluctuation during 1980 to 1997. During the period of 1980 to 1991, the qu antity was low with average density of 330 eggs per a hundred plants, and its ra nge was 122-706 eggs per a hundred plants. However, the egg quantity became hig h remarkably during 1992 to 1997 with average density of 1 877 eggs per a hundre d plants, and its range was 264-4 023 eggs per a hundred plants. Based on the o utbreak map of the 2nd generation of H. armigera, it was found that the spat ial distribution patterns were aggregated in all years, but the collective degree wa s changed with time and the proportion of the spatial correlation component. The density grades of egg distribution were high in the southwest, but low in the northeast in the study areas. From the northeast to the southwest, the densities of eggs increased gradually. The highest grades of density were found in the ar eas of Fuping, Quyang, Xingtang, Lingshou, Pingshan, Handan, Cixian, Linzhang an d Weixian, and the lowest in Zunhua, Yutian, Fengrun, Tangshan and Fengnan. The densi ty of eggs was not only related to location, but also to time. On the whole, out break was the heaviest in 1992 and heavier in 1993 and 1995, while moderate in t he 1981 and 1990 and the lightest in 1987. The outbreak number in the 1980s wa s significant lower than that in the 1990s. The results were consistent with t hat of the time series analysis. Based on the pertinent reports and our study, i t was suggested that the higher air temperature, especially warmer winter was th e main factor which triggered outbreak of the H. armigera in the 1990s. It was also suggested that in west and southwest outbreak areas, numerous mountains, a bundant vegetation, higher wheat cultivation proportion, and lesser rainfall in June, should be important factors leading to the outbreak of H. armigera.
出处
《昆虫学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第1期33-40,共8页
Acta Entomologica Sinica
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (TG2 0 0 0 0 1 6 2 1 0 )
中国科学院创新方向项目 (KSCX2 SW 1 0 3
KSCX2 1 0 2 )
国家自然科学基金项目( 30 1 70 1 58
30 1 70 596 )
关键词
棉铃虫
卵
地理信息系统
地统计学
空间分布
动态
Helicoverpa armigera
eggs
geographic information system
geostatistics
spatial distribution
dynamics
