摘要
本文采用北碚区龙云测报点1972～1986年的灯下诱蛾和气象资料,双季稻、杂交稻和冬干田比例以及水稻占田期和移栽叶龄变化等资料,采用逐步回归和相关分析方法组建二化螟中期预测模型。结果表明,农事技术措施的重大变化是影响二化螟种群变动的主要原因。所建模型可单独使用或分类平均集成使用,后者更能提高测报结果的稳定性。
In a study carried out in 1987～1989,historical records of insect-trap-light-collectedmoths,meteorological data(air temperature and rainfall)and agrotechnical factors(respective percentage of double-cropping rice,hybrid rice and winter-water-field to thetotal rice area;rice growing duration in a gear,and the leaf age of the seedlings attransplantation)were adopted to establish forecasting models for Chilo suppressalis(Walk-er).A stepwise regression analysis based on the correlation analysis between the moth dataand the two environmemtal variables showed that agronomical practice might exert a muchmore significant effect on the occurrence of the pest than meteorological factors.
出处
《西南农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
1992年第1期17-22,共6页
Journal of Southwest Agricultural University
关键词
二化螟
中期预测
种群动态
Chilo simplex
mid-term predictions
population dynamic
models
