摘要
根据奉贤区 195 0～ 2 0 0 1年水稻二化螟发生程度的观测资料 ,结合水稻栽培技术、栽培制度演变情况和水稻白穗率高低变化特点 ,本区水稻二化螟发生危害过程分为由高到低回落期、先升后降期、低发生期和波动上升期四个历史阶段 ;分析了水稻二化螟发生程度与一代灯下诱蛾数、水稻生育期变化、栽培方式及环境气候等条件之间的关系。在此基础上 ,建立了水稻二化螟发生程度的多元回归预测模型 ,历史拟合率为 94% ,经2 0 0 1～ 2 0 0 2年应用验证 。
The evolutionary history of Chilo suppressalis in Fengxian District could be divided into four historical stages which orderly were the dropping stage, the rising-before-dropping stage, the low incidence stage and the wavelike rising stage, and the relations between the incidence of Chilo suppressalis, the number of lamp-trapped moths of the first generation, the development stages of rice, the culture way and weather conditions were analysed according to the observational data about the incidence of Chilo suppressalis, the techniques and system change of culturing rice, and the degree of damage caused by rice white head between 1950～2001.On the above basis a multivariate regression model of the incidence of Chilo suppressalis was established and the degree of fitting historical data was 94%. The results predicted by this model in 2001 and 2002 showed that the predictive effect was good.
出处
《上海农业学报》
CSCD
2003年第2期62-66,共5页
Acta Agriculturae Shanghai
关键词
上海
稻区
二化螟
发生规律
预测方法
Rice
Chilo suppressalis (Walker)
Occurrence law
Prediction model
Preventive tactics
