摘要
利用上海奉贤县1995～1999年的水稻病虫害(稻瘟病、纹枯病、稻纵卷叶螟、稻飞虱)资料及同期气象资料,在水稻栽培模拟优化决策系统(RCSODS)原有的框架下,补充、完善了水稻病虫害预测模型(RPEST),利用奉贤县2000、2001年的气象资料和上海精准农业园区上述4种病虫害的前期发生资料,对其后期的发生期、发生量或发生程度进行试预报。结果表明:RPEST对上述病虫害有较好的预测能力,预测值与实测值之间有较好相关性,且误差较小。可以认为:RPEST在上海及周边地区是适用的。
A model called RPEST in RCSODS (Rice Cultivation Simulation, Optimization, Decision-making System) .which can be used to predict the diseases and insect pests was supplemented and perfected by using the diseases, insect pests and weather data( 1995 ~ 1999) collected from Fengxian county in Shanghai. Then the RPEST was run to forecast the occurrences, amounts and degrees of 4 major rice diseases and insect pests ( rice blast, sheath and culm blight, leaf roller, planthopper) in Shanghai Precision Agricultural Garden,in terms of the Fengxian data from 2000 to 2001. The results indicated that the RPEST has a fine capacity to forecast the rice disease and insect pests mentioned above, with a significant correlation coefficient and a smaller error. It is, therefore, concluded that the RPEST can be used in Shanghai and its nearby regions.
出处
《江苏农业学报》
CSCD
2003年第2期70-74,共5页
Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金(30030090)
中国科学院知识创新工程项目(K2CX2-412)
关键词
水稻
栽培模拟
优化决策系统
RCSODS
病虫害
预测模型
上海
奉贤县
rice
Rice Cultivation Simulation, Optimization, Decision-making System
disease and insect pest prediction model
Shanghai
