摘要
本文通过对太阳周不同时段旱涝频率的分析,得到长江中下游地区大面积旱涝存在22年和11年重现周期,这恰好与太阳黑子11年周期有关,在太阳周升时段以旱灾为主,平均旱涝比为3.2比1,经过5.5年左右到降时段,则以涝灾为主,平均涝旱比为1.8比1,第22太阳周峰年已经过去,粗略估计1996年是第23太阳周的谷年,因而在目前的降时段(最近几年),长江中下游地区以大涝为主,以后大涝再逐时段减少.在1990—1995年期间,预计发生大涝3次,大旱1次;在1995—1997年期间,大涝1次,大旱1次;在1997—2000年,大涝1次,大旱2次.
By means of the frequency analysis of droughts and waterloggings in different intervals of the solar cycles, we obtain the 11 and 22 year periods of these disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and they correlate closely with the 11 year cycle of sunspots. The droughts are dominant in the ascending phase of the solar cycle, with a drought and waterlogging frequency ratio of 3.2. After 5.5 years or so, the descending phase of the solar cycle is attained and then the waterloggings are the dominant disaster with the waterlogging and drought ratio of 1.8. The peak of the 22nd solar cycle has passed. It is roughly estimated that 1996 will be the valley year of the 23rd solar cycle and therefore, in recent years waterloggings will be the dominant disaster in the above-mentioned reaches and afterwards decrease with time. It is predicted that there will be 3 waterlogging and 1 drought in 1990—1995, 1 waterlogging and 1 drought in 1995—1997, and 1 waterlogging and 2 droughts in 1997—2000.
出处
《天文学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第2期179-185,共7页
Acta Astronomica Sinica
关键词
太阳活动
旱涝规律
灾情
长江
Solar Activity—The Regularities of Drought and Waterlogging—Discussion and Estimation of the Occurrences of Disasters
