摘要
目的 分析传染病爆发的家庭聚集性特点 ,探讨应用数学模型来拟合实际的分布。方法 应用负二项分布、β-二项分布对传染病家庭聚集性分布进行拟合。结果 经比较拟合结果 ,负二项分布对流行实际的模拟具有较好的效果。结论 负二项分布适用于罹患率较低的传染病爆发家庭聚集性的拟合 ,有助于查明传播途径和制定有效防治措施。
Objective To analyze the characteristic of households clustering in outbreak of infectious disease, observed data were fitted to mathematical models. Methods Negative-binomial distribution and Beta-binomial distribution were employed to fit distribution of the disease. Results The effect of application by Negative-binomial distribution was satisfied. Conclusions Negative-binomial distribution was suitable for households clustering in low attack rate of infectious disease and it's helpful to explore the transmission path and establish the measure to prevent infectious diseases.
出处
《疾病控制杂志》
2003年第5期426-427,共2页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目 (编号 :30 170 833)
