摘要
[目的]分析1992年～2001年哈尔滨市南岗区女性乳腺癌发病和死亡水平及变化趋势,预测近期发病率和死亡率水平.[方法]资料来源于南岗区恶性肿瘤发病死亡登记报告系统,采用ICD-9进行死因分类,利用SPSS软件包分析,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)进行预测.[结果]10年间女性乳腺癌发病率和死亡率呈上升趋势,年平均发病率和死亡率分别为31.95/10万和7.91/10万.乳腺癌发病和死亡分别居女性恶性肿瘤发病和死亡的第二位和第三位,分别占恶性肿瘤发病和死亡的21.17%和7.90%.25岁～35岁乳腺癌发病率增加明显.预测2006年女性乳腺癌发病率和死亡率将分别达到54.98/10万和11.36/10万.[结论]女性乳腺癌发病率和死亡率呈逐渐缓慢升高趋势,预测女性乳腺癌发病率和死亡率分别将以每年3.7%和2.2%的速度递增.
To investigate the incidence and mortality tendency of female breast cancer from1992to2001in Nangang district,Harbin,and to predict incidence and mortality tendency in the near future.The data was from registration system of malignant tumor in Nangang District,ICD-9was adopted for death causes classification.Data were analysed by SPSS software,and predicted by gray system GM(1,1).Inci-dence and mortality of female breast cancer increased during the past10years,the average incidence and mortality were31.84/10 5 and7.91/10 5 per year respectively,which ranked the second(21.17%)and the third(7.90%)of female malignancies respectively.Incidence rate of breast cancer in25to35years old increased obviously.Predictive incidence and mortality of female breast cancer would be54.98/10 5 and11.36/10 5 respec-tively by the year2006.[Conclusion]Incidence and mortality of female breast cancer will increase gradually and slowly,progressive increase with3.7%and2.2%per year respectively is predicted.
出处
《中国肿瘤》
CAS
2003年第10期574-576,共3页
China Cancer
关键词
女性
乳腺肿瘤
发病率
死亡率
流行病学
female
breast neoplasms
incidence
mortality
epidemiology
