摘要
本文采用经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法,分析了广东夏季旱涝的早期大气环流特征,发现5月份100hpa的第四特征向量场和500pba的第三特征向量场的时间系数变化与旱涝变化趋势有很好的相关关系,相关系数分别高达0.86和-0.74(信度α<0.001)。这些早期大气环流特征与夏季旱涝的相关关系可作为气候诊断预报的重要线索。
By using EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) method, the principal components of the monthly mean geopotential height field at 100 hpa an and 500 hpa levels in May are obtained. The relations between the principal components and the rainfall in Guangdong during summer season are analysed. It is found that the first eigenvectyr represents mean climatic circulation and there are connections between the drought and flood in summer of Guangdong and the variation of the time coefficients of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th eigenvectyr. Especially the variation tendency of the drought and flood in time scale of decade has good correlation with the variation of the time coefficients of the 4 th eigenvectyr at 100 hpa level and the 3rd eigenvectyr at 500 hpa level, and the correlation coefficients reach 0.86 and -0.74 respectively (reliability α<0.001). These correlations between the atmospheric circulation feature in early summer and the drought and flood in summer provide important leads for the climatic diagnosis and forecast of the drought and flood variation tendency in summer of Guangdong.
出处
《热带地理》
北大核心
1992年第3期256-263,共8页
Tropical Geography
基金
广东省科学基金
关键词
大气环流
旱穴
涝灾
夏季
广东
Empirical orthogonal function
Eigenvectyr
Drought and flood
