摘要
根据湖南省各地、市近50年长序列耕地统计资料、近10多年土地利用调查数据及相关社会经济资料,重点从耕地的数量变化、耕地变化的空间差异等方面,宏观分析湖南省耕地动态变化趋势和规律。应用相关分析和主成分分析相结合的方法,定量诊断耕地变化的驱动因子,揭示耕地变化的驱动机制。运用多元回归分析构建耕地变化回归模型,预测出2010和2025年的耕地数量,在此基础上提出一系列耕地可持续利用对策。
According to the statistical and survey data at provincial and county levels, the trend of cultivated land change, the spatial difference, and the driving forces for cultivated land change in Hunan Province during the last 50 years are discussed. 1) The total and per capita areas of arable land are reducing, especially the per capita cultivated land area has decreased sharply from 0114hm2 to 0049 hm2. The trend of decrease will continue with the development of economy and increase of population. 2) Variation of the cultivated land shows a regional difference. 3) As a result of the principal component analysis and correlation analysis, the eight variables of driving forces affecting arable land changes are analyzed, which could be classified into three types: pressure of population system, the dynamic development of economy, and progress in agricultural science and technology. 4) By using regressive equation, along with population growth and economic development, the prediction of cultivated land for 2010 and 2025 in Hunan Province is made. 5) Some measures for sustainable use of cultivated land are suggested.
出处
《热带地理》
2003年第3期255-259,共5页
Tropical Geography
基金
中科院知识创新课题"长江中游生态系统变化与农业持续发展研究(kzcx2-sw-415)"资助
关键词
湖南
耕地变化
可持续利用
驱动因子
Cultivated land change
Driving forces
Sustainable use of land
Hunan Province
