摘要
通过建立基于供求的均衡汇率模型,把影响汇率的各种因素纳入模型考虑之中,根据我国目前的双顺差局面,判断人民币汇率对市场均衡汇率的偏离方向,可以说明在资本项目不可自由兑换的当前,事实上的人民币固定汇率的合理性及其对货币政策的有益影响。但是,随着关税下调,从事实上的固定汇率制度走向真正有管理的浮动汇率制度是人民币汇率制度的必然选择。
By setting up the supply-based equilibrium exchange rate model, and by putting various factors affecting exchange rate into the model, then in view of the double favorable situation in China, we can judge the deviating direction. It can demonstrate the rationality of the factual fixed rate of RMB and the favorable effect on the monetary policy under the situation that the capital account cannot be converted freely. With the reduction of the tariff, however, it is the necessary choice to turn from the fixed exchange rate to the controlled floating rate.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
2003年第10期16-19,23,共5页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
关键词
均衡汇率
汇率制度
货币政策效果
Equilibrium Exchange Rate
Exchange Rate System
Monetary Policy Effect
