摘要
本文在已揭示的夏季(6、7、8月)海洋与冬季(12、1、2月)大气的热力遥相关联系的基础上,通过参数化形成了相应的数学模型,从夏季6月海洋与冬季1月大气的热力预报方程出发,分析了海气非同步影响函数的时间变异性,确定了数学模型的稳定性,由此进行了北半球500hPa月平均大气非绝热热流量距平、温度距平的长期预报试验。非独立和独立预报表明:利用海气热力遥相关的长期天气预报方法具有一定的预报能力和潜力。
Based on the known thermal teleconnection between summer sea (June, Julyand August)and winter air (December,January and February),a corresponding mathe-matical model is developed through parametrization. Beginning with the thermal fore-casting equation of summer (June) sea and winter (January) air, the temporal variationof the function affected asynchronously by sea and air is analyzed, thus ascertaining thestability of the model. Thereby, long-range prediction experiments are conducted ofthe diabatic heat flow and temperature anomalies of the NH 500hPa monthly mean atmo-sphere. The independent and dependent predictions show that the long-range predic-tion method by use of the sea-air thermal teleconnection is applicable and has an enor-mous potential in its use.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
1992年第1期31-38,共8页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
关键词
长期
天气
预报
海气
遥相关
iong-range weather prediction
sea-air teleconnection
