摘要
分析了基于概率方法依据的假设在项目风险管理中的不适用性,并从实务操作中的预算储备和阶段性决策等应对措施中获得实证解释。在此基础上,用实物期权方法拓展项目风险管理的思路,对各种实物期权进行了分类和讨论。
This paper discusses the conventional project risk management is firmly rooted in probability theory that limits its ability to explain actual project management practice. Reserve budgets and the rolling wave approach implicitly acknowledge the existence of ignorance in projects. The implications and real options analogy are discussed.It has become fashionable in recent years for academics to adopt a real options theory framework in addressing project risk management.
出处
《基建优化》
2003年第4期17-19,共3页
Optimization of Capital Construction
基金
上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2002BJB005)
教育部哲学社会科学"十五"规划(01JA630059)资助项目。
