摘要
客户全生命周期利润 (CLP)是判别客户对公司价值大小的标准 ,但如何预测CLP是一个至今没有很好解决的问题。提出了依据客户历史利润与以往客户利润曲线案例的拟合情况来预测客户未来利润模式 ,进而预测CLP的拟合法。该方法基于交易数据进行预测 ,克服了现有客户事件法预测结果过多依赖于预测者主观判断的缺陷 ;可评估每个客户对公司的价值并据此分配公司资源 ,克服了现有Dwyer法只能按组预测而不能在客户级上预测CLP的缺陷。本文详细讨论了拟合法预测CLP的原理和数学模式。
Customer lifetime profit (CLP) is a criterion based on which the customer's contribution to its supplier is measured. However, the forecasting of CLP is a unsolved problem. The fitting method is presented to forecast CLP. According to the fitting situation of the historical profits of current customer with cases of customer profit curves, it forecasts the future profit model and thereby CLP of the current customer. Because it forecasts based on transaction data, this method may avoid those defects of the present event-method whose outcomes are relied too much on the predictor's subjective judgment. Moreover, the method may evaluate each customer's value to the supplier according to which the supplier may distribute its resources and thus it may go without defects of the present Dwyer-method, which can not forecast CLP on the customer level. The principle and mathematical model of the method are discussed in detail.
出处
《科研管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2003年第4期102-109,共8页
Science Research Management
