摘要
战略投资对一个企业的生存和发展至关重要,其投资项目一般都具有不可逆性和可延迟性特征。传统的现金折现方法(DCF),由于未考虑项目现在投资和将来投资的不确定性,并且未忽视机会成本,所以容易产生错误的决策。本文考虑了战略投资中所内含的期权,用期权理论对不可逆可延迟的战略投资建立决策模型,通过对模型的分析来衡量对项目的投资与否,并确定最佳的投资时机。
Strategic investment is of great importance to the survival and development of an enterprise. Most investment projects are irreversible and cyclic. The method of DCF does not consider the uncertainty of current or future investment, and it does not recognize the opportunity cost, so it may lead to wrong decision. In this paper, authors use the theory of real option and set up a model of decisionmaking for irreversible and cyclic investment. Through such analysis, the model will tell us whether to invest or not, and when is the best time to invest.
出处
《工业工程与管理》
2003年第3期65-69,共5页
Industrial Engineering and Management
