摘要
随着经济全球化的不断发展,影响项目投资效果的不确定性因素逐渐增多,投资风险普遍增大,尤其是对于高技术项目.为使高技术项目投资决策更为科学合理,我们必须重视和加强高技术项目的风险分析.但传统的项目风险分析技术要求较高,难以广泛运用,已不能满足经济发展需要.鉴此,结合高技术项目特点给出一种方法——风险模拟方法,通过计算机系统的仿真模拟,将高技术项目风险分析过程系统化、程序化,使风险分析更具有可操作性.
With the globalization process of economy, there are more and mor e factors that affect the capital return of the project. The risk of investment is also going higher, especially for hi-tech project. To improve the effectivene ss of decision-making, we must stress the risk analysis. But the traditional t echnique is too profound to be applied. An effective method on the risk analysis is presented, and the simulation process will be systematic. The approach is mo re practical.
基金
安徽省教育厅科研基金资助项目(2002jw098)
