摘要
将火车站视为本征性灰色系统 ,选用灰色预测方法对春运客流量作出预测 ,并根据实际预测结果对基本模型进行优化。采用残差预测模型和新陈代谢模型等方法 ,解决了预测精度和可信度的问题。实际数据表明预测结果是可信的。
According to the analysis of the passenger flux data, the railway station is taken as an essential gray system. Therefore, the gray forecast method is used to predict the passenger flux during the spring festival. Several measures are used to optimize the basal forecast model, such as choosing the optimized parameter in the error-corrected model, using new information model etc. The actual data indicate that the forecasting result is reliable.
出处
《控制与决策》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第4期507-509,512,共4页
Control and Decision
关键词
客流量
灰色系统
预测模型
残差
优化
Passenger flux
Gray system
Forecast model
Remained error
Optimize
