摘要
根据有关水文气象台站的观测数据,对黑河流域水资源时空分布特征及变化规律进行了分析,并基于GM(1,1)模型和Markov链原理,提出了一个用于黑河流域的水资源变化趋势预测的灰色离散随机过程模型。结果表明,从1944年有观测记录以来的近60a时间里,以黑河干流为代表的黑河流域天然径流经历了几个长度不等的丰水段与枯水段,而目前正处于1996年开始第5个丰水段的下降段的最低点或自2000年开始的第6个枯水段的起始点。未来几年里,黑河流域天然水资源的变化总体上将呈现一种偏枯或平水偏枯的状态,但径流偏枯的幅度将不会很大。
The Heihe River, situated in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province, is the most representative inland river in the arid zone of Northwest China. The water resource of the basin mainly roots in precipitation and ice and snow meltingwater in the Qilian Mountains area and it plays an important part in the development of society and economy of this area. Based on the observation data at the relational hydrometeorological network, the spacetime distribution characteristics and variation orderliness were analyzed. A Grey Markov Chain Model, which was used to forecast the dynamic trend of water resources in the Heihe River Basin, was presented according to the theory of GM (1,1) model and Markov chain. The results show that the natural runoff of the Heihe River has interphasely experienced the five lowflow and the five highflow periods from 1944 to 1999. At present, it is at the lowest mark of the fifth highflow period beginning from 1996 or the starting point of the sixth lowflow period beginning from 2000. The natural water resources of the entire Heihe River basin will present a state of under normal flow as a whole, but the decreasing extent of it will be quite finite.W
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第4期435-440,共6页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所知识创新项目(210100
10016)
中国科学院知识创新项目(KZCX1 10 03 06
ZCX2 301)共同资助
