摘要
使用RegCM2区域气候模式单向嵌套澳大利亚CSERO R_(21)L_9全球海-气耦合模式,进行了CO_2加倍情况下影响中国的台风变化的数值试验研究。首先分析了区域模式对中国气候的模拟能力,结果表明,区域模式由于具有较高的分辨率,因而对中国区域地面气温和降水的模拟效果较全球模式有了较大提高。随后就温室效应对台风的影响情况进行了分析,发现计算区域内台风生成的个数将有一定增加,而登陆我国的台风数目会有明显增加;同时台风的路径将以由南向北移动,在华南登陆影响我国的方式为主。
Impacts of greenhouse effect (doubled concentration of CO_2 ) upon typhoons
affecting China as simulated by a regional climate model over China were investigated.
The model was based on RegCM2 and was one-way nested to the CSIRO AOGCM R_(21)L_9
model. The simulations of present climate in China by the two models were analyzed
briefly first, and then the changes of typhoon due to doubled concentration of CO_2 were
analyzed. The results indicated that the simulation by RegCM2 with a high resolution
was much better than that by the global model, and typhoon activities can be identified
in the simulation by the regional model due to its higher resolution. Under the condition
of doubled concentration of CO_2, an increase of 26% in the number of affecting ty-
phoons was found. Greenhouse effect also causes route changes of typhoons. In the con-
trol run, most typhoons (63%) follow route Ⅰ(moving from the western tropical Pa-
cific and impinging upon central/east China); while in the simulation of doubled CO_2
concentration, about 67% of typhoons follow route Ⅱ (moving from south to north
across the South China Sea towards the coastal regions of south China), which leads to
a substantial increase of landing typhoons over China and consequently results in a grea-
ter number of tropical storms over China. One of the reasons for the change of routes
can be understood by analyzing the simulated changes in SLP.
出处
《热带海洋学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第4期77-83,共7页
Journal of Tropical Oceanography
基金
国家杰出青年基金(40125014)
全球环境变化对策与支撑技术研究项目(2001-BA611B-01)
关键词
气候模拟
区域气候模式
温室效应
台风活动
climate simulation
regional climate model
greeenhouse effect
typhoon
