摘要
将投影寻踪(PP)与高维时间序列分析结合起来,建立了地震PP综合预测模型.并选取祁连山地区作研究区,做了未来三个月内最大震级的短期预测.经展望式检验,合格率(预测误差≤0.5或≤10%)≥80%.文中根据实际需要提出建立一定震级门限(M≥4.0)的预测具有更好的效果.本预测模型还可增加自变量、维数和改变时间尺度,并运用到其他领域中.
Combining Projection Pursuit(PP) and highdimensional time series analysis,the synthetic earthquake prediction model of highdimensional PP time series is built.Selecting Qilian mountain region as research object,its shortterm prediction model of the maximum magnitude within three months is made.The qualified rate of prediction test is more than 80% (Prediction error≤0.5 or ≤10%).In this paper,it is considered that the model with certain magnitude threshold (MS≥4.0) is better accordding to the real cases.It is available for the model to increase parameters,dimensions,change prediction periods,and generalize to prediction in other fields.
出处
《西北地震学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第2期103-111,共9页
Northwestern Seismological Journal
基金
地震科学联合基金会资助课题197003
关键词
投影寻踪
高维时间序列分析
地震预报
回归和预留检验
Projection pursuit
High-dimensional time series analysis
Earthquake prediction
Regression and pretesting
