摘要
对天津市气象台和河北省气象台在 2 0 0 2年 7～ 8月的海河流域面雨量 2 4h、4 8h预报进行了误差对比分析 ,列举了几种预报误差 ,并利用模糊数学中的综合评判法 ,计算了它们的模糊评分。结果表明 :海河流域的面雨量预报有一定的可信度 ,把其作为水文模式的初值 ,有较高的利用价值 ;对于各气象台各自辖区内的预报 ,范围越小 ,预报越准确 ;在对面雨量预报效果的评估上 ,80 % (或 80 )这一数值是客观、可信的。
The errors of 24 hour and 48 hour area rainfall forecast of Tianjin Meteorological Observatory and Hebei Meteorological Observatory in the Haihe river basin from July to August 2002 are analyzed. Based on fuzzy comprehensive judgment method, the two observatories′ fuzzy grades are calculated. The results show that area rainfall forecasts in the Haihe river basin have much more reliability, which are much more useful as a initial values of hydrologic model. The results also show that in the observatories′ forecast regions, the less the area, the higher the forecast accuracy, and the number 80% (or 80) is an objective and believable value for evaluating the forecast effects of area rainfall.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第6期41-45,共5页
Meteorological Monthly
