摘要
本研究参考柯布—道格拉斯生产函数模型 ,以 1990 ,2 0 0 0年为两个时间断面 ,针对塔里木盆地实际情况 ,选择耕地面积、化肥、劳力、有效灌溉面积和农业机械总动力为投入因子 (自变量 ) ,以农业产值为产出因子 (因变量 ) ,利用SPSS统计软件建立投入产出潜力模型。通过分析表明 ,塔里木盆地 1990 ,2 0 0 0年 5种主要投入因子弹性之和都接近于 1,农业生产接近不变规模报酬。 1990年的投入产出系统结构存在着各种投入同时扩大 ,将有产值等比例增长的效果 ,其中化肥影响最大 ,劳动力次之。 2 0 0 0年 ,有效灌溉面积影响最大 ,这体现了水在该区域农业生产中的重要性。
This paper refered Cobb Dauglas Model ,selected the statistics of 1990 and 2000 and utilized SPSS statistical software to establish input output potential models. The models regarded cultivated area, fertilizer,labor,irrigated area and farming machine as independed variables, and regarded gross output value of farming as depended variables.From the results of the models ,we knew that the ratios of the 5 independed variables of the year of 1990 and 2000 were reached to 1.So we said that the returns to scale of agriculture reached to constant. The output increased when all kinds of input variables increased at the same time in the input-output system of 1990.In 1990,the fertilizer was the most important of the 5 factors.The labor is the second .In 2000,the irrigated area became most important.From this, we knew that water is very important in this region.
出处
《新疆农业大学学报》
CAS
2002年第4期22-25,共4页
Journal of Xinjiang Agricultural University
