摘要
投资波动是形成经济周期的主要原因,投资波动性具有经济增长率的减损效应,因而最优投资路径应该具有适度的光滑性。实证结论表明,目前我国投资增长率和投资率与经济增长的趋势水平之间具有方向不同的相关性,投资需求波动的平稳性是经济波动稳定性的主要原因。由于固定资产投资当中基础设施等低产出投资比重过大,导致投资率形成较弱的产出驱动能力。为此积极财政政策需要适度修改期限结构和投资结构,以保持经济快速稳定增长。
The investment volatility is the main reason that causes business cycle and it also causes economic growth loss. The optimal investment path should be smooth in time zone. The empirical evidences show that China's fixed investment growth and investment ratio to real GDP have different relationships with economic growth.Because of the low output infrastructure investment take most part in the fixed investments the investment ratio forces economic growth weakly.The active fiscal policy should pay adequate attention to the improvements of investment terms and structures so as to help keep a sustained rapid economic growth.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2003年第4期30-35,共6页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金(02BJY019)
教育部重大项目(02JAZJD790007)资助项目
