摘要
人的可靠性是个非常活跃的研究领域。本文从航空事件的历史数据出发,论证了飞行系统中人员失误率评估的重要性和迫切性。综述了近年来国内外人的可靠性分析的方法和模型,它们是HCR,CSE,NRC,TESEO,SLIM和灰色模型;评述了各种模型的适用条件及优劣,特别是文中提出的灰色模型将是人员失误率评估中最为有效的方法。同时也为飞行系统的系统配置、座舱资源管理等提出了新的设计考虑因素。
The quantification of human reliability is an active and frequently controversial research area. The increasing role that the probabilistic safety assessment is playing in the regulation of aviation systems has led to the need for the development of models that produce probabilistics for human error rates, which is obvious in historical aviation accident data listed in this paper. The present paper critically reviews the recently developed models for assessing human error rates under accidental conditions. It covers the following models and methods: the human cognitive reliability model (HCR), cognitive sub-element model (CSE), nuclear regulatory commission handbook model (NRC), the technica empirica stima errori operatori (TESEO),success likelihood index methodology (SLIM) and the grey model. Suitable conditions, advantages and disadvantages of the models and methods are briefly discussed. In particular, the grey model which can deal with various man-machine environment and human reliability is considered to be the most powerful method to assess human reliability. In the meantime, this paper puts forward the new aspects that must be considered in systems reliability assignment and supervision of cockpit equipment.
出处
《航空学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第8期B434-B438,共5页
Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica
关键词
人员失误
概率风险评估
可靠性
human error, probabilistic risk assessment, reliability analysis
