摘要
试用中央气象局推荐的旱涝标准对已知流域降水资料进行旱涝分级,并综合运用GM(1,1)模型和马尔柯夫模型对流域旱涝灾害发生的时间进行预测.经检验,两模型可预测流域旱涝灾害发生的时间及其概率,并具有较高的精度.
The article applied the method recommended by the National Meteorological Center to classify the set of annual rainfall date(1956～1985).It gave out the classification of waterlogging and drought of the Basin.It dealed with the date by using the GM(1,1) model which precision was tested can be applied to predict the further event of drought.The probability of the event predicted can be given by Markov Model.The precision is satisfiable.
出处
《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
2002年第4期116-119,共4页
Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
