摘要
乘数分析法是研究生产部门之间、生产与使用、供给与消耗之间关系的重要方法。在阐述乘数概念的基础上,给出部门乘数、就业乘数、收入乘数、能源消耗乘数和水资源消耗乘数的计算公式,然后以黑河流域中游的张掖地区为例进行了研究。
The theory of multiplier analysis is an important technique, which has been used to measure the relationship between each productive sector, production and consumption, supply and demand for goods. Equations of output multiplier, employment multiplier, income multiplier, energy multiplier and multiplier of water resource were shown after explaining the concept of multiplier. At last, the multipliers of Zhangye district, Gansu province, were calculated. The average of output multipliers of ten sectors is 2.3166, which meaning is that immediate consumption will increase 2.3166 RMB with the one RMB increasing in the final demand. The output multiplier of heavy industry is the biggest (2.8213) and the output multiplier of planting industry is the smallest (1.7381). The average of income multiplier of ten sectors is 0.6169, which means that the income of household will increase 0.6169 RMB with the one RMB increasing in the final demand. The largest income multiplier (0.7844) appears in livestock industry and the smallest (0.4999) appears in mining industry. Average employment multiplier of ten sectors is 1.1, which indicates that 1.1 persons will obtain employment with the increase of final demand by one RMB. The average energy multiplier is 0.203kg/RMB, which indicates that the input of energy will increase 0.203 kg of standard coal with the increase of final demand by one RMB. It finds that heavy industry and electric industry have the largest impact on the consumption of energy (their multiplier are 0.4059 and 0.4294 respectively). The average multiplier of water resource is 0.5359m3/RBM, which shows that the demand for water will increase 0.5359m3 with the increase of final demand by one RMB. The result indicates that agricultural industry has the largest influence on the demand for water resource. According to the analysis of five multipliers of Zhangye district, the suggestions can be offered as follows: eco-agriculture model should be carried out to save water resource; the second industry, especially light industry, should be put in the priord development position which is good for the saving of water resource; the third industry should be developed faster for the service for the whole society.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2003年第2期163-166,共4页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40235053和40201019)
人才培养基金(990015)资助。
关键词
乘数
部门乘数
就业乘数
收入乘数
能源乘数
水资源乘数
output multiplier
employment multiplier
income multiplier
energy multiplier
multiplier of water resource
