摘要
目的 测算大气污染物致肺癌的潜伏期。方法 利用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联度模型 ,根据最大关联度值测算出总体的潜伏期。结果 总悬浮颗粒物 (TSP)的最大关联度值为 0 .886,所对应的是 1985～ 1989年的比较数列与 1994～ 1998年的参考数列的关系最为密切。二氧化硫(SO2 )的最大关联度值为 0 .919,对应的是 1986～ 1990年的比较数列与 1994～ 1998年的参考数列的关系最为密切。结论 H市SO2 和TSP致肺癌的潜伏期分别为 7年和 8年。该方法不受混杂因素的制约 ,且计算较为简便 。
Objective To calculate the latent period of lung cancer induced by air pollution. Methods The degree of grey incidence (DGI) between the concentrations of TSP or SO 2 and the mortality of lung cancer were assessed through a grey system model. According to the maximum values of DGI, the total latent period of lung cancer was calculated. Data was collected in H city. Results The maximum DGI value of TSP was 0.886 while the relationship between the comparison sequence from 1985 to 1989 and the reference sequence from 1994 to 1998 was greatly correlated. The maximum DGI value of SO 2 was 0.919 while the relationship between the comparison sequence from 1986 to 1990 and the reference sequence from 1994 to 1998 was most correlated. Conclusions The latent periods of lung cancer induced by TSP and SO 2 were 7 and 8 years respectively in H city. The model of grey system was less affected by the confounding factors, and the calculation process was relatively simple. A feasible and useful new way was provided by the model of grey system for quantitative analysis of the latent period of lung cancer induced by air pollutants.
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第3期233-235,共3页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
基金
浙江省科技厅资助项目 ( 0 12 14 2 )
