摘要
运用灰色控制系统中的GM(1,1)模型分析建模方法 ,建立奥运会田径运动成绩每一单项预测值模型 ,经过建模和比较验证 ,结果表明 :以 70年代以来田径运动成绩数列建模能较好地反映奥运会田径运动成绩发展的基本趋势 ,有较高的精确度 ;在此基础上 ,再构建邻域成绩数列模型 ,得到第 2 8届奥运会田径运动成绩的灰区间 ,可以为有关决策部门提供决策理论依据和科学参考。
Applying the method of modeling (GM 1,1) of the gray control system, the model for predicting track & field results of each individual event at the 28th Olympic Games was established. Through modeling and comparative validation it was shown that since 1970s the modeling of track & field results according to the sequence of number reflect the basic trends of the track & field result development with good precision. On this basis the model of the results of the adjacent events according to the sequence of number was then established. The gray region of the track & field results at the 28th Olympic Games was achieved, which provides theoretical basis and scientific reference for the decision-making departments concerned.
出处
《北京体育大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2002年第6期847-849,共3页
Journal of Beijing Sport University
关键词
第28届奥运会
田径
运动成绩
灰色预测
gray system
Olympic Games
prediction model
gray region
results
