摘要
根据极端事件风险的理论和工程造价风险分析的实际,提出了由左尾分布、原始分布和右尾分布组成的工程造价风险分析的组合分布模型,给出了确定尾分布类型的具体方法,建立了组合分布模型的参数估计的加权最优化模型,并运用它来预测工程造价的风险.实例计算表明,组合分布模型能较好地反映超标造价事件的风险.
Based on the theory of extreme event risk and the practice of risk analysis of the project cost, a combination distribution model for risk analysis of project cost, which is composed of the tail distribution and original distribution, is put forward. The method of determining the type of the tail distribution is given. The weighted optimal models of parameters estimation are established. The risk of project cost is forecasted by using the model. The example calculation shows that the combination distribution model can reflect the risk of exceeding cost well.
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第1期100-103,共4页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
湖北省自然科学基金赞助(2001ABB043).
关键词
工程造价
组合分布模型
尾分布
风险
project cost
combination distribution model
tail distribution
risk
