摘要
基于灰色系统 GM( 1 ,1 )模型和残差修正 GM( 1 ,1 )模型 ,预测道路货运量及货运周转量 ,可充分开发并利用了少量数据中的显信息和隐信息 ,避免复杂的相关关系 ,克服原始数据的离散性 ,得到高精度的预测结果 .以山东省道路货运量及货运周转量为例进行了中短期预测 ,并用后验差方法对预测结果进行了检验 .
Based on grey model GM(1,1) and remnant difference correct model GM(1,1), road freight quantity and turnover quantity are forecasted. The showed information and latent information in a small amount of data can be developed and utilized fully, complicated correlativity is abstained, the discreteness of originality data is overcome, the high-precise predicted result is received. This paper takes the short-term forecast according to the road freight quantity and turnover quantity in shandong province and examines the forecasted result with the methods of posterior check.
出处
《交通运输系统工程与信息》
EI
CSCD
2003年第1期75-79,共5页
Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology
关键词
灰色系统理论
道路货运输
货运周转量
预测
grey model
road freight quantity
freight turnover quantity
forecast
